Brazil remains one of the largest fertilizer importers globally, with record imports of 44.3 MMT in 2024, an 8.3% increase from 40.9 MMT in 2023 (Conab Logistical Bulletin, Jan 2025).
This surge reflects Brazil’s expanding soybean, corn, and sugarcane acreage, where fertilizer demand continues to grow.Key port trends indicate a shift in import logistics:
- Paranaguá: 11.0 MMT in 2024 ↑ from 10.3 MMT in 2023
- Santos: 8.88 MMT in 2024 ↑ from 8.56 MMT in 2023
- Northern Arc Ports: 7.52 MMT in 2024 ↑ from 5.97 MMT in 2023
The Northern Arc ports are rapidly gaining market share due to their proximity to Brazil’s expanding grain-producing areas, particularly in Mato Grosso and Pará. This shift reduces internal logistics costs and accelerates fertilizer distribution to central Brazil.
Outlook for 2025
- Growing Demand for Fertilizers in Brazil’s Expanding Soybean & Corn Belt will support higher import volumes.
- Direct imports through Northern Arc ports will improve cost efficiency.
- Soft nitrogen (UAN, Ammonium Sulfate) prices offer cost advantages for Brazilian farmers in Q1 2025.
- China’s phosphate export restrictions continue to limit global supply, creating price volatility for MAP & DAP.
- Geopolitical instability in Russia & Belarus could disrupt potash supply, pressuring MOP prices.
- Potential freight cost increases due to Red Sea security risks could add to CFR Brazil costs.
Brazil Fertilizer Price Breakdown – Late January 2025
| Fertilizer Type | Price USD/MT
CFR Brazil | Current Trend | Key Supplier(s) |
|---|
| Urea (46-0-0) | $385 - $405 | Stable | Russia, Egypt, Qatar, UAE |
| MAP ( 11-52-0) | $725 - $755 | Firm | Morocco, Saudi Arabia, China |
| DAP (18-46-0) | $750 - $780 | Firm | China (restricted), US, Morocco |
| MOP (60% K2O) | $410 - $440 | Stable | Canada, Russia, Belarus |
| SOP (50% K2O) | $870 - $900 | Firm | Germany, Chile, Belgium |
| NPK (20-20-20) | $710 - $740 | Stable | Morocco, Tunisia
|
| UAN (32%) | $305 - $330 | Stable | US, Russia, Trinidad |
| TSP (46% P2O5) | $540 - $570 | Firm | Morocco , Tunisia |
| Ammonium Sulfate (21-0-0+24S) | $240 - $260 | Stable | China, EU, Turkey |
Key Market Insights
Port Diversification Lowers Domestic Logistics Costs
- Increased fertilizer imports through the Northern Arc will reduce transportation costs to grain-producing regions in Mato Grosso and Pará.
- Importers may increasingly negotiate CIF contracts for delivery directly to these ports, bypassing traditional routes via Santos and Paranaguá.
Urea Prices Holding Firm Despite Volatility
- Prices at $385 - $405 CFR Brazil remain supported by strong agricultural demand.
- Limited supply from Egypt & Middle East due to energy price fluctuations.
- Russian supply continues but is closely watched due to geopolitical risks.
Tight Phosphate Market Driving MAP & DAP Prices Higher
- MAP: $725 - $755 | DAP: $750 - $780, reflecting China’s continued export restrictions.
- Importers are securing alternative phosphate sources from Morocco & Saudi Arabia.
Potash Prices Holding Despite Belarus & Russian Supply Risks
- MOP remains stable at $410 - $440, with Canada covering global supply gaps.
- SOP prices ($870 - $900) remain high due to niche demand for specialty crops.
Soft Ammonium Sulfate & UAN Markets Favor Buyers
- UAN ($305 - $330) and Ammonium Sulfate ($240 - $260) are at multi-year lows, offering cost-saving opportunities for large buyers.
- Chinese and European oversupply is keeping prices under pressure.
GrainFuel Nexus® will continue to provide real-time updates as new trends emerge.
GrainFuel Nexus® | Expert Commodity Intelligence & Strategic Advisory
www.grainfuel-nexus.com
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