In the ever-shifting global agricultural landscape, the Black Sea and Danube regions are once again taking center stage. As we move deeper into the 2025/26 marketing year, the region’s grain and oilseed markets are undergoing a quiet but profound transformation one that could reshape supply flows, alter global trade routes, and redefine crop strategies from Odessa to Constanța.
A year ago, Ukrainian farmers were in survival mode. Today, they're recalibrating their approach with sharpened confidence. High domestic prices for grains and oilseeds, stronger export margins, and improved logistics especially out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports are reviving optimism across the agricultural heartlands of Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria. But this revival is no uniform story. It's a tale of trade-offs, shifting acreage, and geopolitical recalibration.
Ukraine is, once again, punching above its weight. Despite the scars of war and logistical challenges, its wheat and corn exports are surging. What’s remarkable is not just the volume though that in itself is impressive but the direction.
Ukrainian wheat is now flowing with force into Southeast Asia, displacing Bulgarian cargoes from ports that once fed markets in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand. Meanwhile, its corn continues to flood into the European Union, where Ukraine now commands an extraordinary 57% market share.
For Ukrainian producers, this export revival is matched by a domestic price surge. Wheat prices in Ukraine have risen by 50% year-on-year, while forward contracts are trading 25% above last season’s levels.
Corn offers even sharper margins, with CME-linked futures up by over 12% and Ukraine’s forward prices nearly 40% higher than a year ago. These numbers are more than just bullish they’re reshaping planting decisions in real time.
This profitability has kept farmers leaning into corn, despite the perennial challenges of fuel, fertilizer, and weather.
Soybeans, which saw record acreage last year, are taking a slight backseat still present, still profitable, but no longer the leading bet. Rapeseed is being trimmed significantly, mainly because of persistent drought in Ukraine’s southern oblasts, and because sunflower seems to offer a more stable yield-to-profit ratio this season.
Across the Danube, the mood is different. Romania and Bulgaria, once more assertive players in wheat and corn exports, are stepping back. Corn acreage in both countries is expected to decline.
The price signals are still favorable, but input costs, logistics bottlenecks, and fierce Ukrainian competition are discouraging expansion. Romania’s wheat may still find demand in Middle Eastern and North African markets, but its share of Southeast Asia has diminished as Ukrainian cargoes prove faster, cheaper, and more abundant.
Bulgaria faces similar headwinds. Both are likely to focus more on internal EU flows and niche quality segments, rather than competing on volume.
Within oilseeds, sunflower is having something of a renaissance. After a few years of volatility, sunflower seed prices are climbing again, especially in Ukraine, which remains the world’s largest producer and exporter.
This renewed strength is encouraging expanded acreage across key oblasts. For many farmers, sunflower offers a near-perfect balance between yield stability and export appeal, especially as global vegoil markets tighten.
Rapeseed, however, is a different story. The early optimism of 2023/24 has faded. Dry weather during planting in Ukraine severely cut back the area sown, and producers are now second-guessing its place in their rotations. Even if EU biodiesel demand remains a cushion, rapeseed’s short-term future in the region looks constrained.
What we are witnessing in the Black Sea region is not merely a seasonal adjustment. It’s a strategic shift, driven by economics, logistics, and geopolitics.
There is a visible re-convergence of old and new trade routes. The Danube Corridor remains important, but Ukraine’s success in restoring seaborne shipments is shifting the center of gravity southward and eastward, especially in grain markets.Acreage competition between wheat, corn, sunflower, and soybeans is intensifying.
Each crop is vying not just for land, but for a place in the farmer’s confidence. Those decisions, field by field, are being guided less by government subsidies and more by forward curves, freight differentials, and political risk premiums.For traders, analysts, and procurement teams, the message is clear: don’t underestimate the Black Sea.
Ukraine, despite all challenges, is proving itself not only resilient but strategic. Romania and Bulgaria may be retrenching, but they remain crucial in intra-EU flows.
And oilseeds, particularly sunflower, are quietly reasserting their global relevance. The 2025/26 marketing year is still unfolding but one thing is already evident. This is no longer a recovery phase. It’s the beginning of a new competitive cycle, with the Black Sea once again defining the tempo of global grain and oilseed trade.
| Commodity | Brazil → China | Ukraine → China | Russia → MENA | Romania → EU | USA → EU | Argentina → MENA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat (12.5% protein) | N/A | 278 | 275 | 285 | 300 | 282 |
| Corn (Yellow #2) | 255–260 | 240–245 | 248 | 250 | 265 | 258 |
| Soybeans (Non-GMO) | 490–500 | 470 | N/A | 485 | 505 | 475 |
| Sunflower Oil (Crude) | N/A | 1130–1140 | 910 | 940 | N/A | 925 |
| Rapeseed Oil (Crude) | N/A | 960 | N/A | 980 | 995 | 965 |
Wheat Ukrainian wheat is competitively priced for the Chinese market at $278/ton, while Russian wheat is slightly lower at $275/ton for MENA destinations.
Romanian wheat is priced at $285/ton for EU markets. U.S. wheat is higher at $300/ton for EU destinations.
Corn Brazilian corn is priced between $255–260/ton to China. Ukrainian corn is slightly lower at $240–245/ton to China.
Romanian and Russian corn prices are around $250/ton and $248/ton respectively for EU and MENA markets. U.S. corn is higher at $265/ton for EU destinations.
Soybeans Brazilian non-GMO soybeans are priced between $490–500/ton to China. Ukrainian soybeans are at $470/ton to China.
U.S. soybeans are higher at $505/ton to EU markets. Argentine soybeans are priced at $475/ton for MENA destinations.
Sunflower Oil Ukrainian crude sunflower oil is priced between $1130–1140/ton DAP at Odessa ports. Russian sunflower oil is lower at $910/ton for MENA markets.
Romanian sunflower oil is priced at $940/ton for EU destinations. Argentine sunflower oil is at $925/ton for MENA markets.
Rapeseed Oil Ukrainian crude rapeseed oil is priced at $960/ton. Romanian rapeseed oil is slightly higher at $980/ton for EU markets.
U.S. rapeseed oil is at $995/ton for EU destinations. Argentine rapeseed oil is priced at $965/ton for MENA markets.
GrainFuel Nexus® | Expert Commodity Intelligence & Strategic Advisory© 2024 GrainFuel Nexus® | All Rights Reserved
customer.service@grainfuel-nexus.com
Subscribe to our Strategic Reports - Essential Dive & Deep Dive Advisory
