As Ukraine’s agriculture sector braces for a major shift, the expiration of the European Union’s Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) on June 5, 2025, marks a turning point in the geopolitical and commodity trade landscape of Eastern Europe.
These temporary measures introduced in June 2022 and extended twice allowed most Ukrainian goods, including grain, to enter the EU duty-free in response to the war-related disruptions. But starting June 6, 2025, the game changes significantly.
During the height of the crisis following the Russian invasion, the EU’s ATMs provided critical trade relief. The removal of tariff barriers covered nearly 20% of Ukraine's exports to the EU and served as a key instrument alongside the Black Sea Grain Initiative to keep Ukrainian grain flowing.
As a result, Ukraine exported 48.99 million M/T of grain and legumes in MY 2022–23, nearly flat compared to the prior season, with corn at 27 million M/T and wheat at 17 million M/T .As supply concerns eased, grain prices dropped from wartime highs. On May 14, 2024, Ukrainian corn FOB Black Sea traded at $240 Per M/T, and wheat 11.5% at $237 Per M/T, reflecting price stabilization.
The EU rapidly increased Ukrainian imports following the ATMs. Between July 2022 and June 2023:
Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland were key buyers. According to the EC’s May 2024 data, Ukraine accounted for:
The EU also raised imports of oilseeds like rapeseed and sunflower oil.
However, this liberalized trade wasn’t without backlash. Farmers in EU border countries Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria protested what they called a “flood” of Ukrainian grain, which hurt local prices and storage capacity.
The European Commission responded by amending the ATMs (valid from June 6, 2024, to June 5, 2025) with safeguard clauses, including an emergency brake on seven agricultural products like corn, if volumes exceed the average seen from July 2021 to December 2023.
The European Commission has confirmed it will not extend the ATMs beyond June 5, 2025. Starting June 6, Ukraine will once again face import quotas and duties:
This return to protectionist norms is set to reshape regional grain flows and increase pressure on Ukraine’s export competitiveness.
The EU Agriculture Commissioner and the EC spokesperson have both confirmed that a new tariff quota system will be introduced, but it will be less generous than the ATMs. These measures will be embedded under the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA).
The looming policy shift is already impacting prices and trade flows:
This downward pressure reflects broader global forces as well.
The USDA’s May report increased Brazil’s corn output estimate to 130 million M/T, while local analysts peg it even higher at 134–135 million M/T. This will reinforce downward pressure on world prices, especially as Brazil prepares for major exports in July–August.
Adding to the complexity, China signed protocols on May 13 to import Brazilian DDGS, increasing competition for US corn and biofuel by-products in a key market.
On the domestic front, recent rainfall in Ukraine has replenished soil moisture and aided crop development, easing fears of yield loss. However, temperatures remain below seasonal norms, slightly tempering optimism.
Next year looks promising: Ukraine is expected to bounce back with higher corn output and exports, while wheat shows a slight decline.
Region | MY | Wheat Output | Wheat Export | Corn Output | Corn Export |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU-27 | 2025–26 (f) | 135.5 mt | 33.5 mt | 66.8 mt | 4 mt |
Ukraine | 2025–26 (f) | 22.1 mt | 15 mt | 31 mt | 26 mt |
As the EU reinstates duties and quotas, Ukrainian grain exporters will face increased competition, logistical costs, and downward price pressures. The burden now shifts to:
GrainFuel Nexus® | Expert Commodity Intelligence & Strategic Advisory© 2024 GrainFuel Nexus® | All Rights Reserved
customer.service@grainfuel-nexus.com
Subscribe to our Strategic Reports - Essential Dive & Deep Dive Advisory
