The global wheat market enters the second half of 2025 under a complex interplay of supportive demand fundamentals and increasingly bearish supply-side pressures. While global stock exchange quotations for wheat slid between 3.9% and 8.7% last week driven largely by heavier-than-expected U.S. ending stocks and robust acreage data.
Some physical markets such as Ukraine showed resilience due to domestic yield concerns and logistical dynamics. Overall, the current outlook is defined by stable-to-ample global supplies, concentrated export power in the Black Sea region, and broad-based but uneven import demand across Asia, Africa, and parts of the Middle East.
The USDA’s most recent update for the 2025/26 marketing year places global wheat production at approximately 808.5 million metric tons, marking a slight year-on-year increase. Production gains in the European Union, India, China, Argentina, and Canada are largely offsetting declines forecast in the United States, Australia, and parts of Central Asia.
Ending stocks are estimated to hover around 262–265 million tons, which is still lower than the five-year average but not tight enough to trigger alarm across consuming nations. This translates into a global stock-to-use ratio of around 38.5%, which historically indicates a market that is reasonably supplied, even if not surplus.
One of the most influential variables in the 2025 supply equation is the performance of the Black Sea exporters.
Ukraine’s wheat production is now expected to range between 21.9 and 23 million tons, according to Argus and USDA estimates respectively—down from previous expectations due to subpar yields in southern oblasts. Although the harvest is ongoing, early quality and yield issues have prompted traders to pay premiums for quick shipments to fulfill existing export contracts.
Russia, on the other hand, remains comfortably dominant in the global export market. Its wheat crop is expected to reach 84–85 million tons, with export availability projected near 45 million tons. Russian wheat, priced aggressively and supported by a weak ruble and minimal export restrictions, continues to win most of the tenders in the Mediterranean, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia.
In the European Union, wheat production is forecast to rise 15% year-on-year to 128.2 million tons, thanks to favorable spring conditions across France, Germany, and Romania. However, the recent strengthening of the euro against the U.S. dollar is beginning to erode European competitiveness on the global stage, with soft wheat exports projected to fall to 19.9 million tons this season.
Imports are also expected to decline to 7.3 million tons, reflecting improved domestic supply. Meanwhile, the United States finds itself in a peculiar situation. Despite a modest recovery in export sales in late June, U.S. wheat exports remain sluggish.
Stocks as of June 1 reached 23.15 million tons exceeding expectations and signaling a slow drawdown pace. Wheat acreage reached 45.478 million acres, up modestly, while winter wheat harvesting progress lags both last year and the five-year average.
The USDA has pegged the 2025/26 U.S. farmgate price around $5.30 per bushel, reflecting subdued international demand and growing domestic inventories.
In Asia, India continues its trajectory of self-sufficiency with a record wheat crop nearing 117.5 million tons, despite pockets of heat stress in late spring. The government’s large buffer stock program, combined with good procurement, eliminates any import requirement this year.
China, while largely self-reliant, has shown opportunistic interest in high-quality wheat from Canada and Australia after heatwaves impacted part of its Henan crop. Although not large enough to shift global balances, China’s erratic buying behavior remains a wildcard.
Import demand remains structurally strong but regionally variable.
Egypt, long the world’s largest importer, recently concluded its domestic procurement program with only 3.9 million tons collected falling short of its 4–5 million ton target. This will likely trigger an acceleration in imports in the second half of the year, particularly as the country seeks to bolster strategic reserves.
Egypt’s recent diversification efforts have included sourcing from France, Romania, and potentially Australia, especially as quality concerns mount in the Black Sea.
Elsewhere in Africa, importers such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Sudan are all showing consistent wheat demand growth.
Nigeria, in particular, is projected to import over 6 million tons this season—a figure that has grown in line with its expanding milling sector and rapidly urbanizing population.
East African countries, affected by climate volatility and modest domestic production, are expected to maintain or increase imports, particularly for food security purposes.
In Southeast Asia, Indonesia and the Philippines continue to represent stable wheat consumers, with annual imports exceeding 7 million tons each. While their consumption is closely tied to feed and industrial use as well as bakery sector expansion, currency pressures and freight costs may modulate demand in the short term.
That said, the overall direction remains upward as dietary preferences increasingly shift toward wheat-based products.Turkey and Bangladesh also maintain a steady import rhythm.
Turkey is balancing domestic price controls with the need for stable food supply, while Bangladesh remains exposed to volatility in global wheat prices due to limited storage capacity and high dependence on public procurement.
Both countries may become more active buyers in the latter part of the year, particularly if prices soften.
China’s wheat import posture is difficult to predict. While its import volumes have declined from the 2020–2022 highs, the state’s willingness to intervene and procure on short notice makes it a critical market mover. Even moderate purchases of 500,000 to 1 million tons could significantly tighten the global balance sheet, especially if Black Sea logistics face disruptions or quality issues arise.
The futures market continues to reflect a broadly bearish sentiment. U.S. wheat futures fell between 3.9% and 8.7% last week across the major exchanges (Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW, and Minneapolis HRS), despite a modest rebound on July 1. Euronext September wheat futures settled at €195 per ton ($230), also down for the week, pressured by expectations of a larger EU harvest.
The overwhelming presence of speculative short positions particularly in Chicago wheat where managed money net short exposure exceeds 110,000 contracts has added to price pressure.
While technical support exists in the $5.15–5.25 per bushel range, any sustained upward momentum would likely require a meaningful supply-side shock or unexpected import activity from China or Egypt.
Currency movements also continue to play a decisive role. The strength of the euro has constrained European exporters, while a weaker ruble has enhanced Russia’s pricing power. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, remains relatively strong, making U.S. wheat less competitive in global tenders despite abundant availability.
Looking forward, the global wheat market appears well supplied, but the balance is delicate. Stocks are not excessive, and the concentration of export power in Russia and the Black Sea presents logistical and geopolitical risks.
Demand, although broad-based, is subject to economic headwinds, currency fluctuations, and government interventions.
In the short term, wheat prices may remain under pressure unless poor weather or freight disruptions curtail exports out of the Black Sea or Australia. From a trading standpoint, accumulating long positions near technical support zones may be considered for speculative accounts, particularly if signs of strong importer demand (such as large GASC or Chinese tenders) emerge. Conversely, short strategies remain viable in the absence of bullish triggers, especially if U.S. export activity continues to disappoint.
As of early July 2025, the global wheat market is navigating the tailwinds of strong production across multiple origins and the headwinds of uncertain, unevenly distributed demand. While Egypt continues to play a central role in shaping market direction, it is far from the sole demand driver. A broader lens reveals robust structural import demand from Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and opportunistic buying from China and Turkey. The balance between export availability and importer reactivity will ultimately shape price movements in the months ahead.
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