Entangling harvest variances, port congestion, and freight economics, the global feed wheat market has entered a phase of critical supply-and-demand recalibration. Where feed wheat once maintained a stable spread to food-grade wheat, it is now racing toward parity propelled by logistical tightness and grade reclassification.
Feed wheat pricing is now a composite of harvest quality, maritime economics, and logistics fluidity. It can no longer be traded on grain value alone. Instead, operators must account for sea costs, delays, and port access at every stage.
At GrainFuel Nexus, we are monitoring real-time freight curves, demurrage developments, and grade classification trends to provide clients with layered pricing intelligence more than just FOB quotes, but the full landed cost story.
Ukraine’s harvest Odesa-region samples now feature 12–13% protein but lower test weights, prompting many tons to be sold as feed. Domestic demand has surged, forcing CPT and FOB price convergence at around $210 per M/T as inland premiums vanish. Cargoes destined for CST ports reflect this urgency.
Russia retains its position as a top exporter, yet July shipments fell to a 17-year low of 2–2.6 MMT, citing delayed harvests and terminal gridlock. The government responded by removing export taxes, but physical flow remains sluggish. Downstream terminal capacity and complex quality mixes again driven by excessive protein continue to limit feed-grade availability.
EU Black Sea (Romania, Bulgaria) continues to reveal similar dynamics. High-quality crops narrow the feed-grade pool, leading to $224 per M/T FOB offers, about €6 below Euronext milling wheat, signaling a tightening of the feed-to-food spread.
North America has robust output (U.S. ending stocks at 895 Mbu; Canada pushing 35 MMT spring wheat), but that grain skews toward milling quality. As a result, only minimal feed-grade volumes are available for export, and those primarily exit through Gulf and Pacific Northwest routes.
Freight and port logistics now exert material pricing pressure , buyers are adjusting valuation structures to reflect real movement costs.
Consider this scenario ; Ukrainian cargo is sold FOB at $210 per M/T
This pricing grid explains why buyers in SEA and MENA view $245–255 CIF origin offers as strategic—they reflect real logistics costs, not arbitrary markups.
Egypt continues to dominate global feed purchases. Upcoming tenders for August–September will test this freight model: a $210 FOB origin will likely yield substantial interest if landed CIF remains under $255.
Turkey & Jordan are scanning the same corridors; trading in CVB ports eliminates some freight but brings grain classification premiums into play.
Sub-Saharan and Southeast Asian buyers, without viable local alternatives, are pricing feed cargoes more like milling wheat to secure the necessary tonnage. U.S. Gulf shipments struggle to compete not from origin cost, but from freight differentials.
On the exchange, the Black Sea wheat futures index hovers at $226–228 FOB, a few dollars over the latest physical bids of $210–224.
That spread reflects two realities: first, cargoes are often missing from the market before harvest; second, futures anticipate freight and storage carry.
As long as bottlenecks persist and real-time shipping rates decline slowly, expect futures to trade at a premium until actual cargo availability catches up.
We forecast FOB floor at $210, with upside risk if coastal pipelines congest.
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