Ukraine's corn market has experienced a significant surge, with FOB POC prices reaching $241 per M/T as of April 11, 2025. This two-year high is attributed to a combination of factors: farmer retention strategies, tight supply conditions, and weather-related uncertainties.
Comparatively, CPT prices have risen by 48% year-over-year, from $155 per M/T in 2024 to $231 per M/T in 2025. The Black Sea region is witnessing a supply crunch, exacerbated by production declines in neighboring countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Serbia.
Turkey's recent tariff cut of 5% on 1 million metric tons of corn imports has temporarily boosted Ukrainian corn flows; however, old-crop stocks are projected to deplete by May or June. In the European Union, demand dynamics are shifting, with Italy facing port congestion and feed wheat increasingly substituting corn due to narrowing price spreads. Globally, risks such as US-China trade tensions, Brazil's delayed harvest, and Argentina's export tax cuts are contributing to market volatility.
Supply Constraints Ukraine's corn production has declined by 23% year-over-year, totaling 25 MMT, the lowest since 2017 primarily due to drought conditions . Farmers are withholding stocks, selling only 50,000 mt/day CPT, in anticipation of higher prices. Old-crop stocks are expected to exhaust by May or June, tightening supply in the second quarter. The Black Sea region, including Romania, Bulgaria, and Serbia, is experiencing similar yield declines, amplifying regional shortages.
Demand Drivers The EU accounts for 60% of Ukraine's corn exports, with countries like Italy and Spain actively seeking spot shipments. CIF Italy prices have reached $255 per M/T. Turkey's tariff reduction has spurred imports, but the quota is anticipated to exhaust by June, potentially softening prices to $215–220 per M/T.
China may resume imports post-Lunar New Year, though volumes have been minimal thus far (8,200 MT from July to November 2024). In EU markets, the wheat-corn spread has narrowed to €2–3/mt, leading to increased substitution of corn with feed wheat.
FOB Ukraine prices have climbed to $241 per M/T in April 2025, up from $173 per M/T in 2024, indicating bullish momentum.
CPT port prices have surged to $231 per M/T, marking a 49% year-over-year increase. Forward prices for new-crop corn (2025/26) are trading at $200–205 per M/T, 12–15% below current levels, signaling expected relief post-harvest.
Global Benchmarks
Ukraine & Black Sea For the 2025/26 season, Ukraine's corn production is forecasted at 31 MMT, up 17.8% year-over-year, contingent on favorable weather conditions. Export projections stand at 21 MMT, a 29% decrease from the previous year, due to tight carryover stocks .
Competing Origins
Exchange Rates
The softness of the USD supports export competitiveness but may be offset by tariffs.
Geopolitics
Ethanol Demand
US ethanol production has dipped by 5% as of March 2025, impacting corn usage.
Buyers It is advisable to secure Ukrainian old-crop corn promptly, ahead of the anticipated depletion in May or June. Monitoring Turkey's quota exhaustion is crucial for anticipating potential price corrections.
Sellers should capitalize on current price rallies while hedging exposure to the new crop.
Attention should be directed toward Brazil's Safrinha harvest delays and Argentina's tax policy shifts, as these factors will influence global trade flows.
GrainFuel Nexus® | Expert Commodity Intelligence & Strategic Advisory© 2024 GrainFuel Nexus® | All Rights Reserved
customer.service@grainfuel-nexus.com
Subscribe to our Strategic Reports - Essential Dive & Deep Dive Advisory
