The alarm bells are no longer just ringing they’re blaring. The United States is undergoing a deep, structural contraction in its role as the cornerstone of the global grain and oilseed trade.
This is not a result of a single bad harvest or temporary price pressures. It is a systemic recalibration of global agri-commodity flows, driven by rival efficiency gains, evolving geopolitical alliances, and U.S. policy inertia.
For decades, the United States stood as the unrivaled titan of global grain and oilseed trade, feeding nations and fueling economies. But the landscape has shifted dramatically. Where the U.S. once commanded 80% of soybean exports and 44% of wheat shipments, it now struggles to hold onto shrinking market shares 11% in wheat, 31% in corn, and just 27% in soybeans.
Brazil, once a minor player, now dominates soybean trade, while Russia and the EU have expanded their wheat footholds.
This decline isn’t just about competition; it’s about geopolitics, trade wars, and the fragile trust that underpins global food security. And as tensions between the U.S. and China escalate once more, the future of American agriculture hangs in the balance.
The numbers tell a sobering story:
Corn exports have plummeted from over 80% of global trade in the 1970s to just 31% today.
Soybean exports, once an American stronghold, now see Brazil controlling over 60% of shipments.
Wheat, a cornerstone of U.S. agriculture, now makes up only 11% of world exports, down from 44% in 1980.
The U.S.-China soybean dispute (2018-2020) forced Beijing to pivot to Brazil, a shift that may now be permanent. Every tariff imposed, every embargo declared, erodes confidence in the U.S. as a reliable supplier. The U.S. must ask: Can domestic demand fill the gap? Currently, 25% of U.S. grain production is exported, including over half of its soybeans.
Brazil’s ascent is no longer a forecast it's a reality carved into the Cerrado. Over 50 million new arable acres have entered production since 2000, and more notably, Brazil’s double-cropping system soybeans followed by safrinha corn has reshaped global grain seasonality.
Brazil’s cost structure, aided by a persistently weak real (BRL), gives it a consistent FOB price edge of $0.20–$0.40/bushel vs. U.S. Gulf. Combine this with continued investment in northern port capacity (example : Barcarena, Santarém) and direct rail links to Mato Grosso, and Brazil's grains are not just cheaper they’re faster to Asia.
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine, despite ongoing geopolitical turbulence, have tripled wheat exports since 2000. Russian wheat operates at $120 per M/T vs. $200+per M/T in the U.S., thanks to lower land costs, cheaper energy, and less regulatory burden.
We Expect Black Sea wheat to continue displacing U.S. HRW in North Africa and the Middle East, while Brazil increasingly challenges U.S. corn in West Africa and Southeast Asia.
U.S. corn yields have flattened to <1% annual growth since 2013, a dramatic fall from the technological gains of the early biotech era. This stagnation is compounded by soaring input costs: fertilizer volatility (especially post-Ukraine war), diesel inflation, and tightening labor markets have squeezed farm margins, turning many operations into cost centers.
Without a biotech or agronomic breakthrough, the U.S. will struggle to restore yield momentum. Meanwhile, precision ag adoption remains uneven and fragmented, with large-scale commercial benefit still years away.
The 2018–2020 U.S.-China trade war permanently altered global supply chains. China once taking 60%+ of U.S. soybean exports now buys 70% from Brazil, locking in multi-decade strategic supply contracts with COFCO, Amaggi, and others.
Beyond China, U.S. grain exporters have lost their “reliable partner” badge. Egypt, Indonesia, and even Mexico now prioritize logistical security and political neutrality, preferring alternatives even if slightly costlier or lower quality.
This is not about who has the best grain it’s about who can deliver under pressure. Reliability now outweighs price.
China’s grain and oilseed strategy is no longer commercial it’s strategic. Its vast soybean imports (~100 MMT/year) are now geopolitically diversified, backed by investments in Brazilian and Argentinian crushing capacity and port infrastructure.
New soybean processing hubs in Brazil mean that China can now import meal and oil instead of beans, bypassing U.S. and even Argentine origins entirely. This move reduces dependency while securing offtake.
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Thailand, Nigeria, and Egypt are increasingly sourcing Black Sea wheat and Brazilian corn. Why? Price, but also credit facilities, delivery timelines, and diplomatic alignment.
Russia’s push to build influence via grain diplomacy as seen with African debt-for-grain deals has helped it become the supplier of choice across key importing blocs.
We expect further fragmentation of demand in 2025–2030. The “U.S. as default” model is dead. Now, supply origin is a strategic choice.
Yes, biofuels especially Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) represent a growth vector. But let’s be realistic: even if SAF hits 5 billion gallons by 2030, it will consume no more than 10% of the current U.S. corn surplus.
Ethanol consumption has plateaued, and vehicle electrification is shrinking the gasoline pool. Biodiesel may pick up some slack via soy oil, but not enough to change the macro picture.
Biofuels are a stopgap, not a savior.
President Trump’s recent call to “sell more inside the United States” ignores reality. The math doesn’t add up: American farmers rely on foreign buyers. Without them, surpluses will crush prices, destabilizing rural economies.
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