India did something the market had speculated about for three years, it lifted the ban on wheat exports, authorizing 2.5 million metric tons of wheat and another 0.5 million tons of products to hit the high seas. The headlines wrote themselves. But headlines don't move cargoes. Fundamentals do.
As we sit here today, the global wheat complex is undergoing a quiet but profound recalibration. India is back, yes, but at a price that doesn't yet work. Ukraine is battered, yes, but still shipping with an agility that defies the war maps. Russia is dominant, yes, but carrying inventory overhang that keeps a lid on any rally dreams.
And the buyers? From Cairo to Jakarta, they are spoiled for choice, playing origins against each other with surgical precision. Let's cut through the noise and look at the actual chessboard.
The Indian Variable: Supply Without Competitiveness
First, let's be brutally honest about the Indian situation. The government's decision was driven by domestic necessity, not global demand. The numbers tell the story: closing stocks with the Food Corporation of India are projected at 18.2 million metric tons by April 1, against a buffer requirement of just 7.5 million tons.
Private trade is sitting on another 7.5 million tons. Add in a record 117.9 million ton harvest last year and another potential record coming in April, and you have a surplus that simply had to find an outlet.
The political calculus is clear. With state elections looming in key agricultural regions like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, the government needed to put a floor under farm-gate prices. Allowing exports is that floor, a signal to traders that New Delhi will not let prices collapse below roughly ₹2,300 per quintal. But here is the rub: Indian wheat is currently quoted at $270–$280 per metric ton FOB.
Argentine wheat? Around $200 FOB. Global offers range from $197 to $270 FOB, meaning India sits at the top end of that range. The math does not work for most buyers. To become viable, Indian prices need to fall to $260–$265 FOB, which likely requires a domestic correction to ₹2,250–2,300 per quintal when the new crop arrives in April. Until then, the only logical outlet is Bangladesh, where road and rail trade from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar can bypass ocean freight entirely.
Industry estimates suggest 60,000–65,000 tons per month could move overland between April and June. Beyond that? Minimal volume. The bigger picture is this: even after the immediate quota is filled, India faces a potential surplus of nearly 20 million tons in FY27. This export window is not a one-off, it is the first step in a multi-year effort to prevent domestic prices from cratering.
The market must now price in the reality that India is a lurking variable, always present, always watching, and ready to move if global prices ever climb high enough to meet their parity.
Ukraine: The Unkillable Exporter
While the world was refreshing news feeds on India, Ukraine was quietly doing what it has done for three years, exporting grain against all odds. The USDA's February report kept its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports unchanged at 14 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year. But that headline number masks a critical evolution. Ukraine has pivoted hard. In the first half of the season, 45% of its total exports went to North Africa, nearly triple the share from the previous year.
Egypt has emerged as a primary anchor, and Algeria has stepped in as a significant buyer. This is not charity, this is commerce. Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat has been landing in Egypt recently at $245–250 CIF, which puts it squarely in the ring with Russian offers. The quality is there, the price is competitive, and the logistics, while still constrained by security concerns, have become predictable enough for shipowners to commit.
The January USDA report had already signaled the trend, lowering Ukrainian export estimates only marginally while keeping harvest projections steady at 23 million tons. What that tells us is that Ukraine has moved from being a "disrupted supplier" to a "permanently difficult but functional supplier." The market has adjusted.
The routes are established. The buyers are comfortable. Yes, port infrastructure remains vulnerable. Yes, insurance costs are higher. But the discount required to move Ukrainian wheat has narrowed, and that is a testament to the resilience of the entire supply chain.
The Russian Elephant: 91 Million Tons and Counting
We cannot talk about global supply without addressing the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Russia's 2025 harvest is now estimated by Rosstat at a staggering 91.4 million tons.
The USDA pegs it slightly lower at 89.5 million, but the message is the same: Russian wheat is abundant, and it is cheap. This is the anchor on global prices. Russian offers consistently set the floor, and with export quotas in place but volumes still flowing, Moscow is effectively telling the world, "We will not let prices run away."
The competitive pressure is most visible in the major tenders. Saudi Arabia's recent purchase of 907,000 tons for May-June delivery came in at $258–$265 CIF, with the expectation that Black Sea origin would dominate.
Algeria bought 600,000 tons at $253–$254 CIF for March, with Argentine wheat widely anticipated as the primary source, underscoring how multiple origins are now fighting for every ton of demand.
The Global Supply Picture
Zoom out, and the macro view is unmistakable: the world has enough wheat. The International Grains Council projects 2025/26 global wheat production at 842 million tons, up more than 5% year-on-year, driven by rebounds in the EU, Russia, and Argentina. The USDA's February report nudged global exports higher to 221.96 million tons, while ending stocks are projected at 277.51 million tons, comfortable by any historical measure.
But here is the nuance: inventory is concentrated in exporting countries while some importers are running leaner stocks. That dynamic gives buyers leverage. They know the grain is there. They know multiple sellers want to move it. And they are using that knowledge to keep pricing in their favor.
The trade flows are shifting accordingly. Argentina is aggressively expanding into Southeast Asia and North Africa. The EU is maintaining its foothold in sub-Saharan Africa. And China? China has slashed imports by 65% to about 3.85 million tons, with Canada and Australia now supplying the vast majority, a structural shift that has removed a major source of demand from the global balancing act.
The Buyer's Market
Let's talk about demand, because this is where the game is actually being played. Egypt remains the world's largest importer, but as we discussed, the immediate Ramadan buying window is closed. Cairo is comfortable, with reserves well-stocked through the spring.
Their next moves will be tactical, opportunistic purchases when pricing dips, not desperate scrambling. Indonesia is the second-largest buyer, and its appetite shows no sign of slowing.
The Philippines and Vietnam are also steady importers, and all three are benefiting from the global glut. Bangladesh is the wildcard. With land connectivity to India and a constant need for affordable wheat, Dhaka stands to be the primary beneficiary of New Delhi's export opening. But even there, price sensitivity is extreme.
They will buy Indian only if it beats the alternatives. Sub-Saharan Africa is the long-term growth story. Population growth is driving steady increases in food consumption, and the region's inability to produce sufficient milling wheat domestically ensures a structural import requirement for decades. For exporters, this is the prize.
The Logistics Angle
In a surplus market, logistics become the margin. Recent data from the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service shows that transportation costs are softening in some corridors. For example, landed costs for U.S. wheat from Kansas to Japan via the Pacific Northwest were down 8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, coming in at around $260 per ton.
That is a direct result of lower farm values and declining rail and truck rates. But logistics are not uniformly benign. Cold weather in North America has frozen sections of the Mississippi River, pushing up barge freight costs and tightening availability at New Orleans.
This is a reminder that even in a well-supplied world, physical bottlenecks can create localized tightness. For Indian wheat to compete beyond Bangladesh, ocean freight must be minimal. That limits its natural catchment area to the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, and perhaps East Africa if pricing aligns. For longer hauls, the math simply doesn't work against Russian or Argentine offers.
The Climate Wildcard
We would be remiss not to flag the weather risk, because it is never truly absent. The Northern Hemisphere is currently experiencing bitter cold. In the U.S., parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and the winter wheat belt are exposed without adequate snow cover, raising the specter of winterkill.
In Russia, temperatures are far below average, though snow cover is currently deemed adequate. Meanwhile, La Niña has established itself, and its persistence threatens to bring dryness to Argentina and excessive moisture to Australia during their critical growing periods.
The 2026/27 crop is not yet in the barn, and any significant weather event in a major exporting region could rapidly tighten a market that currently feels complacent.
The Bottom Line: What This Means for You
Let me distill this into actionable takeaways.
First, India is a sentiment-shifter, not an immediate disruptor. The 2.5 million ton quota will be filled slowly, opportunistically, and primarily into neighbouring markets.
The real story is the 20 million ton surplus lurking behind it. That overhang will cap any significant rally in global prices for the foreseeable future.
Second, Ukraine is here to stay. The 14 million tons of exports forecast by USDA are credible and will continue to flow, particularly into North Africa. Do not underestimate their ability to compete.
Third, Russia sets the floor. With 91 million tons of production, Moscow can afford to be patient and aggressive in equal measure. Their pricing will dictate the trading range for everyone else.
Fourth, buyers are in control. From Jakarta to Cairo, importers have options and they know it. Tenders will be competitive , and Margins will be thin.
Fifth, watch the weather. A market this well-supplied can turn on a dime if a major producer suffers a crop event. La Niña is active. The Northern Hemisphere is freezing.
We are navigating a surplus world with regionalized logistics and intensifying competition. The next 12 months will not be about guessing the direction of the market, they will be about executing better than the competition. Stay nimble. Watch the parities. And never fall in love with a single origin.
by Jade Kheir
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This is a general market analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or professional advice. The author assumes no liability for any actions taken based on this information.